Are EV's the Long Term Solution that is Being Forced Upon Us By an Over Zealous Canadian Government

 

Are All Electric Vehicles the Long Term Solution?

In December 2023, the Canadian government passed legislation mandating the transition to zero emission vehicles (ZEV). The transition sets goals that are stepped by percentage up to full transition by 2035. Should the Canadian Government be mandating what type of automobiles that we can and cannot buy? Do mandated laws match what the public really wants or needs? The purpose of this article is to look at all of the knock on effects of EV transition.

 

Image courtesy of https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/65271

1.       The different types of vehicles available today or in development.

a.       ICE, Internal combustion Engine vehicle, gasoline or diesel engine

b.      PHEV, Plug in hybrid electric vehicle, has both ICE engine and battery electric motor. Battery is recharged by plugging in.

c.       REEV, Range extended electric vehicle, Plug in battery electric motor backed up by an ICE engine to recharge depleted battery.

d.      Bimodal, 2 separate drive trains. One uses ICE and the other battery electric motor. Both are independent of each other.

e.      FCEV, Fuel cell electric vehicle, use of hydrogen to produce energy through a fuel cell stack that produces electricity to feed the electric motor. Does not have a battery.

f.        ZEV, Zero emission electric vehicle, battery and electric motor, charged by plugging in. Has regenerative braking to help recharge the battery.

g.       When comparing ICE and ZEVs and will refer to ZEVs simply as EVs.

2.       EV Ownership

a.       Initial cost of an EV is higher than an ICE vehicle even with government rebates. New technology R & D, servicing, training are part of the cost of owning an EV.

                                                               i.      https://driving.ca/auto-news/driver-info/canadian-ev-rebates

b.      EV replacement battery cost and availability due to rapid technology change. How long will older battery designs be stocked and how long is the shelf life of these batteries. A $10-20,000 bill is not unusual once the vehicle is out of warranty. However Hyundai Motor Company has come up with a battery leasing plan in Korea which alleviates the initial cost and eases the burden of high replacement battery costs. Other manufacturers may follow this model to lower the cost and improve public acceptance of EVs.

                                                               i.      https://www.greencars.com/greencars-101/cost-to-replace-an-ev-battery

                                                              ii.      https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/02/20210225-hyundailease.html

c.       EV Insurance costs are typically higher than an ICE vehicle for various reasons. The most significant factor of insuring an EV relates to the vehicle being scrapped because of potential damage to the expensive battery which can be up to half the value of the vehicle.

                                                               i.       https://www.consumerreports.org/money/car-insurance/electric-vehicles-cost-more-to-insure-than-gasoline-powered-a6372607024/

d.      Basic infrastructure cost. Charger installation in residential single family homes. Do not assume that hydro rates will stay the same. As demand goes up, so will the rate per Kilowatt-hour.

                                                               i.      https://www.consumerreports.org/search/?query=how%20much%20does%20it%20cost%20to%20install%20an%20ev%20charger%20at%20home

e.      EVs have higher recall rates due to new and rapidly changing technology bugs.

                                                               i.       https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2023/03/09/the-future-may-be-rosy-but-for-now-jd-power-says-ev-owners-are-less-happy-with-service-experience/?sh=6dc3d1c465bc

3.       Maintenance comparison of EVs and ICE:

a.       EVs have similar basic maintenance requirements to ICE vehicles because all cars have commonality amongst them except for the powertrain. The internal combustion engine powertrain versus a battery electric motor powertrain.

                                                               i.      Suspension, brakes, tires, cabin air filter

                                                              ii.      Headlights, power windows(max, all 4), Various Pump,
Radiator Fan, Cabin Fan , Seats and Steering Wheel, Rear Defroster, Power Steering, Power Brakes, Wipers (max, all 3), Various lights, Computers and displays, Radio.

                                                            iii.      Most EV’s will also have differential whether it is a single or dual motor design. Unless an EV has a drive motor on each opposing wheel set, a differential is required to allow for the turning speed of the wheels to change rotational speed according to the road curvature. EVs would still need a gearbox of some sort for each motor to optimize torque, cruising speed, etc.

1.       https://uk.motor1.com/features/704167/do-electric-vehicles-have-transmissions/

b.      Evs are in fact not as simple as we are led to believe. They are a complex multitude of various electrical systems. These are some of the systems.

                                                               i.      240 VAC(Volts Alternating Current) plug in voltage

                                                              ii.      Transformer/rectifier to change 240 VAC to either 400 or 800 VDC (Volts Direct Current) for battery charging

                                                            iii.      Inverter to convert 400 - 800 VDC to VAC for drive motors

                                                            iv.      regenerative braking 400-800 VAC to VDC

                                                              v.      battery monitoring and safety systems

                                                            vi.      The omnipresent 12 VDC lead acid battery that we are all familiar with for all of the auxiliary equipment common to both EV and ICE vehicle.

                                                           vii.       https://www.iewc.com/resources/technical-guide/electric-vehicle-wiring-overview

                                                         viii.      These are; Headlights, power windows(max, all 4), Various Pump,
Radiator Fan, Cabin Fan , Seats and Steering Wheel, Rear Defroster, Power Steering, Power Brakes, Wipers (max, all 3), Various lights, Computers and displays, Radio

                                                            ix.      https://allev.info/2020/03/why-do-electric-vehicles-have-a-12v-battery/

c.       All EV’s incorporate regenerative braking from the motor becoming a generator which adds charge to the battery during periods of no acceleration. It helps to slow down the vehicle by the wheels having to turn the motor rotor which recoups the inertia or rotational energy used to turn the motor rotor which in turn generates electricity which is fed back to the battery. Reduction of the braking system's brake pad usage cannot be compared directly because it is related to driver habits. This rotational inertia energy is low in comparison to the frictional energy from the braking system which has the capacity to stop the full weight of the vehicle. Regenerative braking does not significantly reduce the mechanical braking required. If an EV driver is heavy on the accelerator and the brakes there is virtually no reduction in brake wear exacerbated by the higher vehicle weight.

                                                               i.       https://www.eetimes.com/understanding-regeneration

d.      EV technicians / mechanics will endure years of training as the technology evolves. There is an added service cost that will be shared by manufacturers, dealers and the public. There are also electrocution risks when technicians are unfamiliar with changing technology.

                                                               i.       https://eintac.com/risks-working-electric-hybrid-vehicles/

                                                              ii.      https://www.asc.ohio-state.edu/physics/p616/safety/fatal_current.html

                                                            iii.      https://www.metroid.net.au/engineering/knowledge_center/fatal-electric-shock-what-voltage-causes-death/

                                                            iv.      https://x-engineer.org/ev-design-battery-calculation/

                                                              v.      https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/65271

e.      Modern ICE vehicles in fact are very low maintenance.

                                                               i.      The main additional items of an ICE vehicle requiring regular maintenance are engine oil, oil filter and air filter. Today’s synthetic oils last much longer but should be changed at an interval up to 15,000 miles (24,000 km) or at least once a year because of gasoline blow by contamination and condensation from short trips. Air filters are a once a year or longer item

                                                              ii.      Periodic additional items of an ICE vehicle requiring maintenance would be

1.        Iridium and platinum spark plugs which can last up to 150,000 km so in most cases, the owner’s life of the car.

2.       Transmission oil. Gone are most multi speed multi clutch transmissions. Most ICE vehicles are now equipped with simpler CVT transmissions. Continuous Variable Transmission. They still do have a differential and torque converter but are much smaller, lighter and less complex. An oil change is required at between 48,000 km and 100,000 km.  

3.       Engine sensors (about 20 different ones) and ignition coils on plug would only be changed if defective.

                                                            iii.      As aside note, a manual transmission ICE, not easily found in North America in today's car market, has more engine braking than an EV in regenerative braking mode which only involves rotating the armature like a fly wheel to regain the rotational energy while ICE engine braking involves compression within the cylinders and is a more effective braking mechanism. It works sort of like lift and coast driving to save fuel and brake wear.

4.       The rush to transition

a.       It took about 100 years for the ICE vehicle to become as reliable and efficient as they are now. The implementation of fuel injection, electric fuel pumps, electronic ignition and computer controlled air fuel mixtures, catalytic converters, emission controls like EGR (exhaust gas recirculation), EVAP(Evaporative emission control) and  has led to the most efficient vehicles ever.

b.      It will take many years to develop the EV to be as reliable and range efficient as the ICE vehicle of today. Public acceptance of EVs may suffer a setback if the 100% implementation is imposed in too short a time period as is the case with the Government mandate.

c.        https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32879214/synthetic-oil/

d.      https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/regenerative-brakes-how-they-work/

e.      https://www.themanual.com/auto/electric-cars-less-reliable-than-gas/

5.       Public charging stations are required for renters.

a.       There is a danger of electrocution from damaged charging cords laying across the sidewalks and roads in snowy and rainy conditions.

b.      Snow removal operations will be impacted by public road charging stations that are not in designated charging lots.

c.       Over 20% of public charging stations in the U.S. have been subjected to vandalism exacerbating the risk of serious injury or death by electrocution.

                                                               i.      https://energy5.com/preventing-ev-charger-vandalism-with-effective-security-measures

6.       EV’s weigh more than gas powered vehicle of similar size due to the size and weight of the batteries.

a.       The difference in weight from the reduction of powertrain components not required in an EV is offset by the heavy battery and electrical equipment resulting in a net weight gain. The downside of a heavier vehicle is that there is an inherent amount of energy used to move that vehicle from point A to point B which reduces the energy sources useable energy or overall system efficiency.  It is directly proportional to the GVW (gross vehicle weight).

b.      A lone driver in an EV must carry around the deadweight of a 1000 - 3000 lb. battery which affects both the battery capacity required and the efficiency of an EV. In reality, some EVs take the same amount of energy that would be used to power a gas vehicle of similar size classification to carry the battery alone plus in addition, the energy to move the weight of the bare EV without the battery.

c.       Basically up to double the overall energy can be expected to drive an EV. This has an overall negative impact on energy use, no matter how that energy is generated.

7.       EV tires wear at a much quicker rate because of their higher gross vehicle weight which affects traction slip and friction and thus negatively affects the tire wear pollution problem. Particles from tire wear are responsible for a higher percentage of micro plastics in our water systems.  Currently micro plastic pollution is about 78% synthetic rubber and is set to increase as more governments mandate the switch to EV’s...

a.        https://e360.yale.edu/features/tire-pollution-toxic-chemicals

8.       The effect of heavier vehicles on road wear

a.       Public road wear and maintenance is impacted negatively from heavier vehicles. EVs are not currently subjected to the gasoline road tax that ICE vehicles pay. This tax is used for road maintenance and repair. Tax rates vary from province to province and range from 6.2 to 19.2 cents per litre of gas. EVs contribute more to road surface damage because of their weight. There will likely be new taxes.

b.       https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/domestic-and-international-markets/transportation-fuel-prices/fuel-consumption-taxes-canada/18885

9.       More than 60% of the world’s electricity is generated by fossil fuels namely coal and natural gas (depending on the source of information). So basically a large portion of the EV market is in reality driving a coal (+36%) or natural gas (+20%) fired vehicle. And Hydro electricity generation (+16%) produces Methane gas, 10x worse than CO2 for the atmosphere.

a.       https://www.statista.com/statistics/269811/world-electricity-production-by-energy-source/

b.      https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix

c.       https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Power_plant

10.    The world infrastructure in perspective. Today we cannot support all electric vehicles charging no matter what time of day and taking into account the unpredictable nature of when cars will be charged. It is predicted that Canada will have to double or triple electricity output by the year 2050.

a.       https://canadianautodealer.ca/2023/11/can-our-electric-grid-handle-anticipated-growth-in-ev-adoption

11.    The infrastructure of all pre-EV constructed residential areas in Canada and outlying areas cannot support the electrical loads of at home charging stations added to each home. On a social scale, governments and utilities cannot predict nor implement scheduled staggered charging periods unless utility suppliers force charging schedules to meet the enormous demand and will penalize consumers by higher rates if they are not in compliance. More than likely people would plug in at the same time (after work hours typically same period of the day).

a.       During the period where most homes in the northern hemisphere and specifically referencing Canada, had oil fired hot water furnaces as the main sources of heating.

b.      A typical home was built with a 100 Amp electrical entrance. That has since changed so that the norm now is 200 amps as more people were optioned electric furnaces, hot air or hot water electric boilers and or electric resistance heating like baseboards and convectors.

c.       Summer cooling loads aren’t really part of the equation since their loads are less demanding than heating loads because of the smaller temperature differential in the summer versus winter. Heating and cooling do not usually occur simultaneously.

d.      Some larger homes do have larger capacity electrical entrances rated at greater than 200 amps all the way up to 400 amps.

e.      Rural homes and cottages built 50-100 years ago are greatly affected by the lack of electrical capacity and may only be equipped with a 60 Amp service entrance since wood burning would have been their primary source of heat and where cottages were mostly used as summer getaway homes.

f.        In any case, most single family homes do not have a large enough electrical entrance to support a level 2 charger. A level 2 EV charging station typically requires 40 amps at 240V single phase.

g.       Let’s talk about the 240 Volt connected loads. Heating is allotted 100 amps for a 1200 SQFT home with a basement total for both floors 2400 SQFT and allotted by rule of thumb, 10 watts per square foot (24KW at 240 V is 100 AMPS), Clothes dryer 30 amps, Stove 40 amps, hot water 30 amps. That’s already 200 amps. Lighting and small devices like TV’s and computers aren’t a worry in the big picture because of their small power demand especially with the advent of LED light bulbs.

h.      There is potentially no capacity for a level 2 EV charger if the demand load were 100%. Now connected load doesn’t mean everything is drawing power at the same time (demand load is somewhat of a crystal ball prediction) but this could happen and only needs to happen once unless some serious scheduling was to be done or complex load shedding devices installed.

i.         The potential savior for this situation is that all codes are written in such a way that they cannot cover every situation under the sun. Thus, the local electrical code is subject to interpretation and will often be biased by the electrical contractor looking for business. You can do a quick check on this website which factors in demand loading.

j.        https://www.douglashelmer.com/panel/index.htm

12.    EV owners living in remote outlying areas will be challenged to travel distances greater than the range of the vehicle because of non-existent or sporadic charging network. EV owners whom are required to travel to remote mining and logging camps and mineral exploration scientists and engineers will be greatly challenged with essentially less important charging capabilities planned in the short time period mandated by the government.

13.    Accidents between EV’s and ICE vehicles are more deadly for the non-EV vehicle due to the weight differential.

a.        Newton’s 2^nd law of motion. F=M x A. Force = mass x acceleration. Then Newton’s 3^rd law of motion, the law of conservation of momentum responsible for transferring that momentum to the lighter vehicle. My advice to you is to try not to get hit by an EV. I am deadly serious.

b.       https://www.britannica.com/science/Newtons-laws-of-motion/Newtons-second-law-F-ma

c.       https://fortune.com/2023/01/11/electric-vehicles-heavy-batteries-truck-warning-accidents/

14.    Recycling plans

a.       Li ion EV battery recycling plans are not on par with the rapid pace of government mandated EV transition. Extremely toxic chemicals used in the batteries. I.e. Lithium, cobalt, nickel manganese along with aluminum outer shells are still in its infancy.

b.       https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/10/17/promising-new-breakthrough-for-recycling-ev-batteries-discovered-by-swedish-scientists

c.       ICE vehicle recycling of powertrain components is a well-established process that doesn’t involve rare and toxic materials that EVs have. Basically aluminum, cast iron, steel.

15.    Road conditions affect EVs negatively

a.       EV safety and security could be compromised from wear and tear from bumpy roads. Stone and curb damage will have an effect on the reliability and safety of the current lithium battery technology. There have been letters from auto manufacturers recommending that EV’s should not be parked next to or in your garage.

                                                               i.       https://www.chevrolet.ca/en/bolt-recall

b.      New battery technology is an ongoing development whose main goal is to shrink and reduce the weight of Li ion batteries but increase the battery storage Kwh (Kilo watt hour) capacity. The current trend is to develop batteries in Nano scale and with vastly increased electrode surface areas. Minimizing the insulation layer at Nano scale between cathode and anode. This could increase the possibility of shorting any one of the many cells joined together to make up a battery pack’s 400 -800 VDC and Kwh capacity. Insulation degradation can lead to thermal run away and eventually a fire. There is a technological shift from 400 V to 800 V which can in theory benefit overall power output by using less instantaneous current. The goal is to make better use of the Amp hour rating of the battery.

c.       https://www.engineering.com/story/high-voltage-vehicles-why-800-volt-evs-are-on-the-rise

d.      https://chargedevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Decreasing-risk-of-electrical-short-in-LI-battery-cells.pdf 

e.      https://www.evfiresafe.com/ev-fire-what-is-thermal-runaway

16.    EV weight in parking garages.

a.       The extra weight of EV vehicles is causing concern. Parking garages were not designed for the additional weigh of Evs however they were designed with safety factors per structural codes. Engineers looking into this are mostly concerned with the differing lifetime degrees of structural degradation over the years of being exposed to corrosive de-icing chemical used on public roads.

17.    Lithium metal exposed to water reacts violently and cannot be extinguished with common current firefighting methods that use water.

a.        https://uwaterloo.ca/earth-sciences-museum/resources/detailed-rocks-and-minerals-articles/lithium

b.      https://www.firehouse.com/operations-training/article/53063898/challenges-during-electric-vehicle-fires-in-open-closed-parking-garages

c.       https://textechindustries.com/blog/how-do-you-extinguish-a-lithium-battery-fire/

18.    EV fires in parking garages whether above or below ground are causing new challenges to the point where some commercial and residential buildings have banned EVs from parking in the parking garage. EV fires are much hotter than ICE vehicle fires. All fires will damage the structure but EV fires are harder to extinguish. At 1100 deg. F (593 deg. C), concrete explodes from water vapor boiling and spalls off in chunks. Steel rebar within will melt if it reaches 2400 deg. F (1315 deg. C). ICE vehicle fires can reach 1500 deg. F (815 deg. C) while EV fires can reach 4,500 deg. F (2482 deg. C). Current parking garage fire protection sprinkler systems are based on water. Water reacts violently with Lithium.

a.       https://www.firehouse.com/operations-training/article/53063898/challenges-during-electric-vehicle-fires-in-open-closed-parking-garages

b.      https://www.livescience.com/65398-concrete-explodes-in-weird-video.html

c.       https://www.onlinemetals.com/en/melting-points

d.      https://www.edtengineers.com/blog-post/fire-effects-concrete

e.      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/e-scooters-ban-parkdale-building-tenants-1.6966666

19.    The energy density of a li-ion battery is about 1/ 50^th of what gasoline is. Li-ion = 200 Wh/kg and gasoline = 12,200 Wh/kg (Watt-hrs./kg)

a.       https://chemistry.beloit.edu/edetc/SlideShow/slides/energy/density.html

b.      In simple terms, you would have to carry around 50 lbs. of battery to equal 1 lb. of gasoline. If a certain size car has a 40 litre fuel tank, it has about 40 x 1.65 lbs. = 60 lbs. of fuel. So the battery would need to be sized at 50 x 60 or 3000 lbs. to have the equivalent range as an ICE vehicle of similar size and classification. But this doesn’t take into account the extra load from the heating and cooling of the vehicle. Typically this size EV does not exceed the 2000 lb. battery size so the range will be less than the ICE vehicle or at best 2/3. Larger EVs like pickup trucks may accommodate the larger battery.

c.       Cabin climate control. Early EV’s used direct resistance heaters (heater coils) and standard AC compressor combined with a condenser coil and evaporation coil typical of most air conditioning systems. These direct electric resistance heaters used huge amounts of battery power and reduced the range and overall vehicle efficiency. In an effort to improve this, heat pump systems are now installed in most EVs for climate control eliminating the heating coil (2-3000Kw) but still employing the heat pump compressor (500 W). In very low outside temperatures, they may not provide enough heat which can be offset by heated seats and steering wheels and a much smaller supplementary resistance heater.

d.      https://www.beev.co/en/blog/electric-cars/pompe-a-chaleur-voiture-electrique/

e.      It is well known fact that battery efficiency drops when temperatures drop and affect both the overall range and the time to recharge. All this is responsible for what consumers and manufacturers call range anxiety.

f.         https://www.iberdrola.com/sustainability/history-electric-car

20.    Norway is a northern hemisphere country that has embraced EVs and is currently the most successful. One in four vehicles in Norway is an EV. Norway’s climate is similar to Canada’s. What do Norwegians do? The majority of Norwegians live in houses and about 90% of them have their own chargers. About 2/3rds of Canadians live in houses and the rest are renters. Renters have additional challenges to recharge. The proximity to a charging station is unknown and not guaranteed to be available or functioning. Norwegians have actually read their vehicles manuals. EVs have a battery feature called pre-conditioning which could take up to 30 minutes pre drive in cold temperatures. Does this affect the battery capacity? Yes, but it can be done while the car is connected to the charger. Yes. Pre-conditioning uses energy before setting off on the intended trip and if not done while plugged in, will affect the vehicle battery capacity.

a.       https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/compare/Canada/Norway/Geography

b.      https://news.motability.co.uk/motoring/what-is-pre-conditioning-for-electric-cars-and-why-should-you-do-it/

c.       https://storeys.com/stat-canada-renter-homeowner-growth-rate-2022/

21.     Major materials of either vehicle type, EV or ICE, they cannot be produced without fossil fuels or fossil fuel generated electricity. As I previously mentioned, 60% or more of the world’s electricity is derived from fossil fuel burning electricity generation.

a.       Steel cannot yet be made economically without the use of blast furnaces which run on metallurgical coke which is processed coal.

                                                               i.      https://www.steel.org/steel-technology/steel-production/

b.      Electric motors still require aluminum or cast iron housings, ball bearings, copper windings and steel stators or rotors to induce magnetism in AC induction motor propulsion. In the case of DC motors propulsion, permanent magnets made with rare earth magnets like neodymium are used. ICE engines are mainly cast aluminum, forged steel and cast iron,

c.       Aluminum smelting requires huge amounts of electricity to process bauxite in an electrolysis process.

                                                               i.       https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-smelting-power-consumption/

d.      Copper smelting is a multi-stage process that requires natural gas, coal and electricity.

                                                               i.       https://mineralsed.ca/site/assets/files/3449/smelting_slideshow.pdf

e.      Tire manufacturing and tire compounds are basically rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black and oil along with steel and nylon belts and steel bead ring as reinforcements. Building tires and then curing them in steam heated vulcanization process is energy intensive to say the least. As mentioned earlier, a major source of micro plastic contamination of our water systems.

                                                               i.      https://www.european-rubber-journal.com/article/2092942/driving-energy-efficiency-in-the-tire-and-rubber-industry

f.        Plastics are made from natural materials such as cellulose, coal, natural gas, salt and crude oil through a polymerization or poly-condensation process. Plastics are derived from natural, organic materials such as cellulose, coal, natural gas, salt and, of course, crude oil. Plastics are a key component of modern day vehicles. In fact, up to 50% of a modern vehicle is made of plastic.

                                                               i.       https://plasticmakers.org/our-solutions/sustainable-american-infrastructure/auto/

g.       Lithium ion batteries are energy intensive when considering the mining, processing and manufacturing of the materials used to make these batteries. Electricity generated by fossil fuels adds to the lifetime carbon emissions of an EV.

                                                               i.      https://earth.org/environmental-impact-of-battery-production/

                                                              ii.      https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-definitely-better-climate-gas-powered-cars

h.      It is currently impossible to manufacture all the components of any vehicle, whether electric or ICE powered, without the use of fossil fuels and large amounts of reliable electricity as the energy sources. For example, tire production cannot tolerate harmonics in the electricity it uses because of the precision servo motor drives required in the processes.

22.    The electric grid

a.       The electrical grid is very complex in nature because each type of electricity generation has different capabilities to increase up or decrease down their capacity. (Spool up or spool down) Nuclear cannot be instantaneously increased or decreased so is used mainly to satisfy base load requirements in locations where nuclear generation is predominant. Hydro, Natural gas, Coal generation can be adjusted slowly and thus can be matched to either base load or intermediate peaking loads. Wind and solar can be turned on and off quite easily. Due to their inherent intermittent characteristics become a problem for grid operators and can lead to blackouts when the frequency range is out of operating range. The grid is equipped with multi-levels of over and under frequency thresholds to either perform load shedding or when necessary enter into automated protective mode.

                                                               i.      https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply-Mix-and-Generation

                                                              ii.      https://www.energuide.be/en/questions-answers/why-does-the-electricity-grid-have-to-stay-in-balance/2136/#:~:text=If%20we%20feed%20in%20too,grid%2C%20i.e.%20a%20power%20blackout.

b.      The electrical grid has no storage capabilities so must be adjust according to demand... Our electrical grid is currently the weakest link. The fluctuating nature of uploading renewable electricity from personal sources to the grid is difficult for operators to monitor and adjust their grids. Renewables and their inherent intermittent characteristics become a problem for grid operators and can lead to blackouts when the demand and supply change and are not matched.

                                                               i.       https://www.npr.org/2016/08/22/490932307/aging-and-unstable-the-nations-electrical-grid-is-the-weakest-link

c.       Hydroelectric electricity generation has a dirty little secret that is not widely spoken about. Reservoirs feeding the dams produce Methane gas at an alarming rate from the summer vegetation as water levels drop and winter submersion as water levels rise. Methane gas is about 28 times worse than CO2 for the atmosphere. Increasing hydroelectric electricity generation will contribute more methane gas to the atmosphere.

                                                               i.      https://hydroreform.org/2022/08/methane-emission-is-hydropowers-dirty-secret/

                                                              ii.      https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/why-do-we-compare-methane-carbon-dioxide-over-100-year-timeframe-are-we-underrating

d.      Renewable energy is too unpredictable and is inherently not be capable of providing the base load requirements of the grid. Solar farms require an unrealistic amount of land. Wind farms require minimum wind speed to function properly.  Both have a negative impact on the environment. Wind and solar farms are paid for by your tax dollar through government green initiatives.

e.      Solar panel electrical output is affected by passing clouds so cannot be relied on as a base load energy source. Not all areas are suitable for solar farms. Solar panel waste will become a problem. The expected life of solar cells is not infinite and currently estimated to be between 20-30 years. Solar panel farms use massive amounts of square footage to produce small amounts of energy. Solar panels radiate heat back into the atmosphere from the black colored solar panels. They create heat islands. A 3-4 degree Celsius temperature rise has been found at solar power plants compared to the surrounding desert lands.

                                                               i.      https://phys.org/news/2016-11-solar-island-effect-large-scale-power.html

                                                              ii.      https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power

f.        Wind farms have a negative effect on wildlife deaths for birds and bats. Wind mills use grid electricity to start the rotation of the blades until it reaches its operational speed. Remember that over 60 % of the world’s electricity is generated by fossil fuels.

                                                               i.       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w

                                                              ii.      https://rumble.com/v30xmay-are-australian-windmills-powered-by-coal.html

g.       Conditioning renewable electric generation to match the grid’s requirements namely the frequency and voltage and then the conversion of DC voltage to AC voltage requires expensive grid tie inverter equipment approved by the power company and can only be uploaded when the power company allows it. In order to protect their grid, some utility operators have a communication system protocol with each provider to invoke a direct transfer trip should the frequency go out of range. During certain operational conditions, electrical providers will actually pay you to stop your windmills and solar panels when they cannot use the electricity that you are trying to feed on to the grid.

                                                               i.       https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/electrical-connections/net-metering/how-to-apply.html.

                                                              ii.      https://sunly.ca/blog/net-meter-and-chill

23.   In conclusion,

a.       The forced transition to EVs

                                                               i.      You must consider all the facts when deciding for yourself if the Canadian Government mandate to rush headlong into 100% EVs is the right thing to do. Should we be looking more closely at the big picture and find alternative modes of energy for the propulsion of vehicles? Transitioning to EVs doesn't necessarily reduce our carbon footprint simply because there are no tail pipe emissions.

                                                              ii.      https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/ev-mandate-is-the-worst/

                                                            iii.       https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/electric-vehicle-mandate/

                                                            iv.      Are you convinced that the transition to EVs will have a positive effect on decarbonizing the environment or are there too many other factors involved? Are there more effective changes that can be made or are we just too reliant on fossil fuels?  Are there yet to be discovered methods to produce useable energy forms. Lest we not forget the 2^nd law of thermodynamics which states that energy cannot be created or destroyed, it simply alters its form. There is no free energy. Energy can only be transformed.

                                                             v.       https://www.khanacademy.org/science/ap-biology/cellular-energetics/cellular-energy/a/the-laws-of-thermodynamics

                                                            vi.      https://time.com/6334072/just-stop-oil-climate-change-activist-group/

                                                           vii.      https://www.un.org/en/climatechange

b.      Global warming, fact or fiction

                                                               i.      Social climate groups have made statements about the environment and global warming without substantial data and have managed to convince many millions of people and governments that the world will be doomed unless we stop using fossil fuels immediately and prevent the atmospheric temperature from rising <2 degrees Celsius.

                                                             ii.      If the world is 4.5 billion years old and we have at most 200 years of atmospheric temperature data, some of which is unlikely to be accurate nor a representative sample, wouldn’t you say that this is not substantial data and the conclusion cannot be substantiated?

                                               https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/trillions-spent-on-climate-change-rely-on-inaccurate-temperature-readings-and-faulty-modeling-5575177?utm_medium=app&c=share_pos3&pid=iOS_app_share&utm_source=iOS_app_share

                                                            iii.      The well-known scientific method currently taught in all schools dispels the myth that we are 100% in global warming. The scientific method states that when a problem arises through observation, you make a hypothesis, carry out experiments, collect data, analyze the data and form a conclusion. Of course there are arguments that we have data from tree rings, arctic ice layers, carbon dating. This is what one can call hypothetical data based on hypotheses. Do not forget that the world temperature varies year to year because of many variable factors. Factors like the variation in the orbit of the earth around the sun, volcanic activity, reliable and significant sampling of temperature data and the increase in population over the last 200 years.

                                                            iv.      https://elementalscience.com/blogs/news/simple-explanation-of-the-scientific-method

                                                             v.      Global warming enthusiasts are unlikely to shift their focus towards sustainability. Global warming enthusiasts will remain razor focused on fossil fuels and decarbonizing.

                                                            vi.      https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population

                                                           vii.      https://www.fst.com/news-stories/magazine/renewable-energy/human-power-plant/#:~:text=At%20rest%2C%20the%20human%20body,over%20a%2024%2Dhour%20period.

                                                         viii.      The stock market trends because of the many variables that affect business. There are many variables that can affect the earth’s atmospheric temperature as well. Do we have sufficient data to see the big picture? Is it possible that the current warming cycle is only a trend in temperature? Could this be followed by a cooling trend? Nobody can accurately predict the future. Once again, ask yourself if we have enough data to come to an intelligent conclusion with respect to global warming.

                                            https://heartland.org/publications/is-the-us-surface-temperature-record-reliable/

c.       The Earth's sustainability issue may actually trump climate change.

                                                               i.      The current world population is 7 billion plus people which is predicted to be 10 billion by the year 2050 and will affect the earth’s temperature. The human body is exothermic, emits heat. The average human body at rest expels about 100 watts of heat per day. A population growth of 3 billion people will add 3,000,000,000 x 100 watts which contributes to a rise in the earth’s temperature over a 24 hour period. That is 300,000,000,000 watts or 300,000,000 Kw every day or 300,000 megawatts per day or 12500 Mw per hour. Along with an extra 3 billion people comes more industrial activity in the form of manufacturing and food production. Will we be able to provide clean drinking water (without increased amounts of micro plastics from EV tires currently at 78% from synthetic rubber), security and shelter, enough food and efficient waste treatment for the present and future population?

d.      Should the World Economic Forum attended by our world leaders move sustainability to the forefront? Starving people won't need EVs or ICE vehicles.

                                                               i.       https://www.wri.org/insights/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts

e.      Do you think that climate change and the efforts to decarbonize as quickly as possible with EVs has become an obsessive religion fueled by businessmen, scientists and corporations looking to make a profit from government green initiative manufacturing grants, research grants and handouts promoted by green activists and followers of what we can realistically coin, “The religion of the Church of Climatology”?

 

 

Robert B. Wong

Retired Professional Engineer (43 years)